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The Current Employment Statistics (CES) provides the latest estimates of employment (which are roughly two months from the observation date). Data are available by metro area and industry sector.  It is important for policymakers to know what employment sectors are most impacted by sudden changes in the regional economy.

Employment in Southeast Michigan (Thousands)

This indicator shows the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), by month, for new vehicle sales in the United States.  Vehicle sales are critical to the health of Southeast Michigan economy. 

U.S. Vehicle Sales (SAAR, in millions)

High-Propensity Business Applications (HBA) are applications for a federal Employer Identification Number (EIN) where the characteristics of the application indicate that it is more likely to form a business with payroll. Businesses Applications with Planned Wages (WBA) are a subset of HBA that indicate a first wages-paid date, increasing the likelihood that such a business will have paid employees. See source for more information.  Business applications are a leading indicator of entrepreneurship.

Business Applications in Michigan

The Consumer Sentiment Index gives a glimpse as to how consumers are feeling about spending and their future expectations for the economy.  Consumer spending makes up roughly two-thirds of the domestic economic output for the United States.

Consumer Sentiment Index from University of Michigan

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the primary measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the U.S. economy. This chart shows the real (or inflation-adjusted) level of expenditures, broken down by durable goods, nondurable goods, and services. Durable goods have an average useful life of at least 3 years (e.g. motor vehicles) while nondurable goods have an average useful life of less than 3 years (e.g. food). Services are commodities that cannot be stored or inventoried and are consumed at the time of purchase (e.g., dining out).  Roughly two-thirds of the total U.S. economic output is through consumer spending.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Billions)

This chart measures the exports of goods to foreign countries based on the transportation origin of movement.  The data have two subsets - manufactured and non-manufactured commodities - however, SEMCOG excludes non-manufactured commodities due to its small size.   Increasing the exports of manufactured goods from Michigan aids in the growth and prosperity of Southeast Michigan.

Exports of Goods for Michigan

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) provides demand-side indicators to assess whether there is a labor shortage/surplus.  There are three key measures: job openings, hires, and separations.   Job openings must meet three criteria to be counted, including: 1) a specific position exists (part-time or full-time, permanent or seasonal), 2) the job could start within 30 days, and 3) the employer is recruiting workers from outside the establishment.    Hires are defined as employees added to the payroll, including new and rehired employees; full-time, part-time, permanent, and seasonal employees; recalled employees (from a layoff); and employees returning to work after being formally separated.   Separations are defined as employees who quit, are laid-off or discharged, or leave for other reasons (e.g. retirement).  Quits are employees who leave their employer voluntarily (except retirements).   Layoffs and discharges are employees who involuntarily separate from their employer.     The JOLTS data provides insight as to how much Michigan's employers are seeking talent.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover for Michigan

The Job Openings to Unemployed Ratio is the number of job openings divided by the number of unemployed people.    A value above 1 means there are more job openings than unemployed people, thus a labor shortage.  A value below 1 means there are fewer job openings than unemployed people, thus a labor surplus.  This ratio is useful in measuring the demand for labor.